Con la llegada del invierno, Argentina se enfrenta a un panorama crítico en cuanto a tarifas y suministro energético, según el consultor Daniel Gerold. Los costos del Gas Natural Licuado (GNL) y el gasoil están alcanzando niveles récord, con el GNL proyectándose a 22 dólares por millón de BTU y el gasoil entre 35 y 37 dólares. Estos aumentos se deben a importaciones tardías y a decisiones fiscales que impactarán tanto a consumidores como a industrias, generando tensiones en la capacidad de abastecimiento.
Gerold enfatiza que los ajustes pendientes en las tarifas de energía eléctrica y gas natural son estructurales y responden a la necesidad de importar insumos más costosos para satisfacer la creciente demanda invernal. La clave para mitigar el impacto de estos costos dependerá de la rapidez con que el gobierno implemente la quita de subsidios. Esta situación ya afecta a una parte significativa de los usuarios, y Gerold advierte que una corrección relevante está a la vista, lo que podría tensar aún más el equilibrio entre tarifas y subsidios.
En cuanto al mercado de combustibles, YPF ha optado por absorber temporalmente los costos elevados del petróleo, en un intento de estabilizar los precios hasta que se produzcan bajas en el mercado internacional. Sin embargo, esta estrategia de "autoestabilización" podría no ser suficiente para evitar aumentos en los precios para los consumidores. Gerold concluye que el panorama energético es complejo y dinámico, con variables que generan incertidumbre en un contexto histórico poco habitual.
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