La Libertad Avanza se impone en una eventual primera vuelta con el 34 por ciento de intención de voto, según la última encuesta del Observatorio de Psicología Social Aplicada (OPSA) de la Universidad de Buenos Aires (UBA). Sin embargo, cuando la contienda se reduce a un mano a mano entre Javier Milei y Axel Kicillof, el resultado es de empate, marcando un escenario abierto rumbo a las elecciones presidenciales de 2027.
El relevamiento fue realizado entre el 28 y el 31 de julio sobre 2.895 casos de manera online con un margen de error de ±1,8 por ciento. Los datos muestran una diferencia clara entre las dos instancias electorales: el oficialismo conserva capacidad para imponerse como primera fuerza cuando la oferta electoral es más amplia, pero esa ventaja desaparece en el balotaje directo.
En cuanto a las preferencias por espacios políticos alternativos, el 21 por ciento elegiría al peronismo kirchnerista y el 15 por ciento al peronismo no kirchnerista. Muy por debajo aparece el Pro/macrismo con apenas el 8 por ciento. Cuando se consulta sobre continuidad o cambio, el 61 por ciento elige el cambio mientras que el 39 por ciento opta por la continuidad.
El estudio también indagó sobre preferencias de gobiernos alternativos al actual. El 37 por ciento elegiría un nuevo gobierno peronista no kirchnerista, el 34 por ciento un nuevo gobierno del kirchnerismo, y el 8 por ciento un nuevo gobierno del Pro/macrismo. Los datos configuran una fotografía del humor de la sociedad sobre las posibles propuestas electorales a casi tres años de los comicios.
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