El presidente Javier Milei participará este lunes y martes de la cumbre de jefes de Estado del Mercosur que se realizará en Asunción, Paraguay, en un escenario marcado por reclamos cruzados y desconfianza política con el gobierno de Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Al encuentro asistirán siete mandatarios y diversas delegaciones internacionales, con una agenda formal que incluye el seguimiento del acuerdo comercial con la Unión Europea y el inicio de conversaciones oficiales con Japón, pero atravesada por el ruido que genera el giro exterior de la Casa Rosada.
Milei llegará a la cumbre condicionado por tres focos de tensión con Brasil: la quita de aranceles para más de 1.600 bienes provenientes de Estados Unidos acordada en febrero, la decisión de la Argentina de solicitar la adhesión al Tratado Integral y Progresista de Asociación Transpacífico (CPTPP) y el veto inflexible del Gobierno libertario al eventual regreso de Venezuela al bloque. El acuerdo arancelario con Washington despierta alarma en la diplomacia brasileña por su impacto potencial sobre la competitividad intra-Mercosur, mientras que el ingreso al CPTPP abre un nuevo tablero geopolítico que incluye compartir espacio comercial con el Reino Unido. En paralelo, Buenos Aires mantiene firme su decisión de bloquear cualquier intento de reincorporación de Caracas al esquema regional.
La cuestión venezolana será otro punto sensible en Asunción. Brasil, Colombia y sectores del Gobierno paraguayo vienen planteando desde hace meses la necesidad de volver a discutir la reincorporación de Venezuela al bloque, pero la representación argentina sostiene que se mantiene el incumplimiento de la cláusula democrática de Ushuaia y de los protocolos normativos por parte del régimen de Caracas. Ese argumento no se modificó ni siquiera después del intercambio técnico abierto por la asistencia humanitaria tras los recientes sismos, y Milei llega a la cumbre dispuesto a ejercer el derecho de veto en caso de que el tema se ponga sobre la mesa.
La agenda del Presidente antes de viajar también expone la brecha ideológica con Brasil. El mismo lunes en que comienzan las deliberaciones del Mercosur, Milei recibirá en Buenos Aires al senador brasileño Flavio Bolsonaro, figura central de la oposición a Lula da Silva de cara a las presidenciales de octubre, en un gesto que refuerza el clima de confrontación bilateral. Al mismo tiempo, la Casa Rosada atraviesa una jornada cargada por los cambios de Gabinete: tras la renuncia de Manuel Adorni a la Jefatura de Gabinete, el Gobierno debe oficializar a su reemplazante y definir el futuro del Ministerio del Interior, que podría ser absorbido nuevamente por la Jefatura como ocurrió hasta mediados de 2025.
Con este telón de fondo, el viaje de Milei a Asunción condensa la doble presión que enfrenta el oficialismo: ordenar el frente interno en medio de una crisis política y de reputación que se llevó por delante a su jefe de Gabinete, y al mismo tiempo defender un modelo de apertura comercial que choca con las prioridades de Brasil y reabre debates sobre el rumbo del Mercosur. La cumbre será así algo más que una foto de familia regional: funcionará como prueba de hasta dónde el Presidente puede sostener su estrategia de alineamiento con Estados Unidos y de veto a Venezuela sin quebrar los equilibrios básicos del bloque y sin sumar otro foco de conflicto a una agenda doméstica ya tensionada.
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